90年代的国际收支：原因、趋势与政策

【作者】 张斌；

【导师】 余永定；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 经济学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 1994年至今，我国持续保持了经常项目和金融项目双顺差的国际收支格局，引起了国内外经济学界和政策决策层的热切关注。经常项目和金融项目同时保持持续性顺差是一种罕见的国际收支格局，过去理论界鲜有系统的讨论，但是中国的宏观经济政策管理迫切要求对这种格局形成相对完整的认识和对策空间。本文在结合中国经济发展过程中各项特征事实的基础上，吸收以往理论研究成果并进行创新，对以上问题提出了解释，并进一步提出了政策分析和建议。 文章共分为三个部分，第一部分讨论中国的贸易顺差。在新古典主义、凯恩斯主义、货币主义和八十年代以后的新古典宏观经济学的带动下，理论界对贸易余额的研究方向也不断发展和完善，尽管这样，仅仅靠这些理论还不足以解释类似中国所经历的贸易顺差问题。本文利用一个两部门模型，立足于投资环节研究贸易余额的决定问题，并将以往各种理论分别强调的静态价格和动态价格都纳入到贸易余额决定当中。利用本文的研究框架并结合实证资料，可以发现高储蓄率、贸易品部门相对于非贸易品部门较快的技术进步率和国外直接投资在1993年以后的大规模流入都是促成中国1994年以后贸易余额持续顺差的主要原因。1985-1993年(贸易平衡时期)和1994-2000年(贸易顺差时期)两个时期相比较，国外直接投资和贸易品部门相对较快的技术进步率对后一个时期贸易顺差的贡献显得尤为突出，名义汇率的非及时调整也是贸易持续顺差的必要条件。 文章第二部分讨论金融项目顺差和官方储备项目变动。和第一部分相比，这一部分没有一个统一的理论分析框架，主要原因是直接投资、非官方短期资本流动和官方储备变动的驱动原因大相径庭，不能放在一个框架内讨论。结合不同的理论框架，文章分别讨论了直接投资、非官方短期资本流动和官方储备变动的原因和未来的趋势。总体来看，中国所具有的各种区域优势是吸引国外直接投资的主要原因，国内外利率差异、内外资税收政策差异以及财富转移是非官方资本流动的主要原因，同时非官方资本流动还受贸易和直接投资的影响。官方储备变动相对被动，它反映了既定汇率水平上外汇市场上的超额供给。未来，中国将继续保持对国外直接投资的吸引力，人民币汇率调整对未来的非官方资本流动和官方储备变动发挥关键作用。 文章第三部分讨论中国开放式平衡经济增长模式当中的对外经贸政策，主要侧重于人民币汇率政策和资本管制政策。经济快速增长必然带来投资需求增加，在资本品生产不具备比较优势的经济发展初步时期，投资需求的快速增长往往伴随着进口需求的快速增长。为了保障经济增长及其伴生的投资和进口增长持续下去，外经贸政策的核心作用在于及时调整贸易品和非贸易品相对价格，保证出口的快速增长足以维持支持进口快速增长，实现开放式平衡经济增长模式。90年代中期以前，通过二元汇率制度、资本管制、外汇留成、进口限制、出口补贴、名义汇率贬值等多种方式，中国成功维持了进出口的平衡增长。九十年代中期以后，人民币名义汇率一直维持在1994年确立的名义汇率水平上，但是汇率背后的国际收支基本面己经发生了显著变化。汇率升值难以避免，汇率延迟升值不仅不能避免最终的汇率升值，最终还会给宏观经济稳定带来一系列不利影响。成功的资本管制是维护中国健康国际收支基本面和宏观经济稳定的必要条件，加入盯O以后，对资本流动的限制会更加困难，但是并不意味着资本管制效率一定会降低。新的经济形势下，资本管制政策需要更加灵活，配合其它宏观经济政策共同促进宏观经济稳定和经济可持续增长的目标。未来的资本管制急需加强对各种形式资本流动的监督和管理，而不一定是限制资本流动。毕竟，流动的资本并不可怕，可怕的是无法控制流动的资本。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 1994 to now, China’ s Balance of Payment (BOP) has been featured by current account and financial account surplus, which brought lots of concerns both from academic and government. Due to its few appearance, this kind of BOP structure is of little discussions in theories. However, the reasons behind this structure, the trend of this structure in the near future, the implications of this structure for macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth and rational countermeasures to this structure urgently need to be understood. In this dissertation, by combining China’ s stylized facts behind BOP and related theories, a empirical model with theoretical base is established to explain the main reasons of China’ s trade surplus. Other issues, such as reasons of China’ s financial account surplus, trend of China’ s BOP, implications of China’ s BOP structure for macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth, and rational countermeasures of government are also discussed.Three main parts organize the dissertation; the first part is about China’ s trade surplus in 1990s. Based on China’ s stylized facts behind foreign trade and a brief review of trade theories in new classicalism, Keynesianism, monetarism and intertemporal approach of current account, a theoretical model is built. In this model, relative price, saving rate, technology progress rate in tradable department comparing with nontradable department, and foreign direct investment are all included to explain trade balance. Comparing 1985-1993 period with 1994-2000period, we found that high level of FDI inflow after 1993 and comparative rapid technology progress rate of tradable department comparing to nontradable department are main reasons driving China’ s persistent trade surplus after 1994. Without a modest adjustment of exchange rate, China’ s trade surplus will continue although it’ s harmful for macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth.The second part is mainly about China’ s financial account surplus and accumulation of foreign reserve. Due to quite different reasons behind different kinds of capital flows, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and foreign reserve cannot be analyzed in a same framework, therefore, different kind of capital flows are discussed respectively. Regional advantages are main reasons inattraeting foreign direetinvestment int0 China:diserePaney between domestie andforeign interest rate，different Poliey treatments towards domestie ownedenterPrises and foreign owned enterPrises，and wealth transfer are main reasonsdriving illegal eaPital flightand eaPital flows in Portfolio investment aeeountandother investmentaeeount.The aeeumulation of foreign reserve 15 ratherPassively，it’5 the result of eurrerit aeeount and finaneial aeeountsurPlus，aswell as a refleetion of exeessive suPPly in foreign exehange market.In the nearfuture，evidenee from different resourees show that China will hold ius traditionaleomparative advantages in attraeting foreign direet investment，and it will bereinforeed by China’5 aeeession into WTO and seale of eeonomy.The direetion ofillegal eapital flows or eapital flows in portfolio investment aeeount and otherinVestmentaCC0llntbe a strong factorean hardly be judged，however，exehange rate exPeetation willin driving these kinds of eaPital flows.Foreign reserve，asaabsorber of exeessive suPPly or demand in foreign exehange market，will eontinueLo ae t 1 ts Passjve role.Without a aetive adjusLmenL in exehange rate，foreignrosorve will keep inereasing due tot，·acle accnzlnt an(1 financi1ccoun91]rpl、1 Thetird part15 mainly about China’5 cxchange rapicy and capi1 conLrpolicy under the ground of China’5 economic growtmacroeconomic stabilizat;ion.Beforo the middle of 19905’，China’5 econ()m y has acllieved a sum.nedb ancegrowth sueeessfully by adjusting relative Priee of tradable to nontradable dulythrough various Poliey instruments.However，after 1994，fundamentals behindChina’5 balanee of paymenthave be更多还原