老龄化与养老保障宏观经济效应分析

【作者】 李军；

【导师】 汪同三；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 数量经济学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 人类社会发展到今天已步入老龄化社会。老龄化所产生的影响是广泛而深刻的。人的预期寿命的延长，意味着个人养老费用占据个人一生收入更大的比重，家庭要为养老支付更多的财富，社会要为养老提供更多的资源。这意味着国民收入分配格局的改变。同时，老龄化程度的不断加深，导致社会保障系统同宏观经济系统形成了越来越紧密的相互作用关系。因此对老龄化及养老保障经济效应的分析，不仅是学术问题，也是具有重要意义的现实问题。 本文研究的出发点在于：从宏观经济总体框架内分析老龄化及养老保障对宏观经济的影响效应。 首先是关于老龄化对经济增长影响效应的分析。这首先涉及如何定量分析老龄化的影响效应。本文通过引入老龄化率变量，并将老龄化率变量引入到生产函数和索洛模型中，由此展开老龄化作用效应的相关定量分析。将老龄化率变量引入到索洛模型，由此找到了分析老龄化对经济增长影响效应的一个有效途径。在此基础上推导出包含老龄化因素变量在内的新经济平衡增长路径方程；利用新经济平衡增长路径方程，证明了老龄化对经济增长在理论上存在着正负两方面的作用效应；同时证明了在理论上存在着老龄化因素对经济增长零作用效应的临界状态；分析了老龄化率变动对经济平衡增长路径、产出和劳动力消费的影响效应；并给山了养老标准系数的不同临界点的计算公式。 其次是关于老龄化对需求影响效应的分析。在老龄化程度不断加深的实际情况下，老龄人口越来越成为不可忽视的影响需求的重要方面。老龄化对总量需求的影响效应是复杂的，在不同条件下老龄化可以对需求起正向或负向作用。老龄化对总量需求的影响效应分别是从消费需求和投资需求两个方面的分析展开的；同时分析了老龄人口同劳动人口两类不同群体的收入差距对总量消费的影响效应。 第三是关于老龄化对社会保障系统影响效应的分析。分析从几个不同方面展开：首先是进行老龄化对现收现付制利基金制下的养老金收益影响分析；其次是进行老龄化对社会保障资金收支平衡影响效应的分析；最后是进行老龄化对个人养老收益性影响的分析。 第四是关于老龄化与养老保障经济模型框架的分析。首先是建立了反映老龄化综合效应的数理分析模型，该模型构建了分析老龄化综合宏观经济效应的一个分析框架；其次，对老龄化与养老保障经济模型的理论框架及模型运行机制进行了有关的探讨；最后，对模型运行机制进行分析。 最后是关于中国老龄化与养老保障相关问题的实证分析。首先是对中国老龄化现状的分析；其次是对中国2001-2050年的老龄化及人口结构变动趋势进行分析与预测；再次是依据本文研究出的理论对中国养老标准系数临界点的测算；第四是对中国社会保障资金与GDP之比的未来增长路径进行了数理推导，并进行实际测算；最后给出基于本文研究成果基础上的相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Humanity has entered population-aging society. Population aging cause many problems and its effects on economy and society are being wider and deeper. The ongoing increase in longevity means retirement income is a crucial aspect of lifetime revenues for each individual, while the growth of pension funding is increasing the share of pension assets in households’ net worth, and social society will have to provide more resource for supporting older people. This means the structure of national income distribution will be changed. Meanwhile, the relationship between pension system and macroeconomic system connect closely because of increasing population aging. Therefore, the economic analysis on population aging and pension system are not only the academic issues, but also the important practical issues.This thesis discusses the effects of population aging and pension system on macro-economy under the framework of macroeconomics. It begins with the evaluating the effects of population aging on economic growth. A variable of the rate of population aging has been introduced at first and then link with production function and the Solow growth model. In fact this is a useful means to analyze the effect of population aging on economic growth. Based on this analysis, the author has the new balanced growth path equation including the variable of rate of population aging. Using the new balanced growth path equation, the author proves that Acre are both positive and negative effects of population aging on economic growth; meanwhile the author proves that there is a state in which the effect of population aging on economic growth is zero, regard as critical condition. Then the author analyzes the effects of changing the rate of population aging on balanced growth path, output, and labor’s consumption, and gets the different formulas of standard coefficient of retirements income.Second, the author discusses the effects of population aging on aggregate demand. The increasing of population aging makes the older people becomes more important part in demand side. The effects of population aging on demand are complex, and it may take different roles under different condition. The author analyzes the effects of population aging on aggregate demand by analyzing the population aging effects on the two factors of aggregate demand: consumption and investment. Then the author discusses the effects of the gap between old-age group’s income and labor group’s income on consumption.Third, the author analyzes the effects of population aging on pension system. The analysis concern three aspects: the effects of population aging on PAGY and funded pension system, the effects of population aging on the balance of pension finance, and the effects of population aging on the individual retirements benefit.Fourth, the author builds a framework of analyzing the economic effects of population aging and pension system by modeling, which combine both supply side and demand side. Then the author describes the mechanism of the modeling.Finally, the author estimates practical issues of population aging and pension system in China. First the author estimates the current situation of population aging in China; then, analyzes and forecasts the degree of population aging and population structure in the period of 2001-2050 in China, calculates the standard coefficient of retirements income in China according to the theoretic methods provided by the author’s research, estimating the path of the ratio Of Chinese social security fund to GDP. In the end the author gives some policy recommendation based on the research.更多还原