【作者】 谭永忠；

【导师】 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土壤学， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 中国地域辽阔，自然资源禀赋与社会经济发展的区域差异显著，土地资源的利用方式、区域土地利用结构、土地利用程度等具有高度的空间异质性。选择较小尺度空间范围的典型地区进行研究，是深入认识和分析土地利用时空变化规律及其驱动机制的有效途径，可以使中国的土地利用／覆被变化研究向更深、更广的方向发展。县级尺度作为中国行政管理体系中的完整基层单位，是中国土地资源可持续利用、管理和规划的最佳尺度。这种尺度的土地利用变化与人类活动的联系相对易于分析，其成果对地方的决策来说也更为有用。 为了丰富对土地利用变化规律的认识，并为土地资源可持续利用提供理论基础和科学依据，必须阐明并定量研究土地利用变化发生与发展的动力机制，这也是建立区域土地利用／土地覆被变化经验模型的前提，是土地利用／土地覆被变化研究不断深化的方向之一。建立在明确空间定位基础上的、综合集成的多尺度动态模型，是分析土地利用变化的原因和结果的工具，能够部分地揭示土地利用系统的复杂性，增强对土地利用变化的解释与预测能力，以便更好地理解土地利用系统的功能，是深入了解土地利用／覆被变化复杂性的重要手段，是理解和认识区域土地利用／覆被变化的某些关键过程并进行定量描述，从而对未来的土地利用变化格局和影响进行研究评价的重要工具，并可为编制土地利用规划和制定土地利用政策提供支持。 基于以上分析和认识，本论文以浙江省海盐县为例，对县级尺度土地利用变化驱动机制进行了分析，并运用CLUE-S(the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects atsmall regional extent)模型对土地利用空间格局变化进行了模拟和预测。本研究的主要内容和结论如下: (1)在阐述土地利用和土地覆被两个概念的涵义及其区别以及土地利用变化发生的可能条件的基础上，分析了土地利用变化的驱动机制，进而对驱动因子一土地利用变化一土地覆被变化之间的关系进行了分析。 (2)分析了土地利用变化建模的作用和目的，模型的结构与发展趋势，介绍了目前影响较大的几种土地利用变化模型，对这些模型存在的主要不足之处进行了分析。 (3)在介绍CLUE一S模型及其与CLUE模型的主要区别的基础上，对CLUE一S模型的应用及应用中存在的主要不足之处进行了分析。 (4)以浙江省海盐县为例，首先利用1986年、1995年和2000年三期遥感影像数据的解译结果，对研究区土地利用变化的幅度、速度、主要土地利用变化类型的流向进行了分析。然后在阐述研究区土地利用变化驱动因子的选取原则、分类的基础上，对研究区土地利用变化的内在驱动因子和外在驱动因子的作用机制分别进行了定量分析。 (5)在对研究区自然环境条件和社会经济发展状况调查的前提下，在1986年土地利用空间数据的基础上，结合道路、河流、港口、居民点、海拔高度以及人口密度、城镇化水平、单位面积农业总产值、单位面积工业总产值、农民人均纯收入等驱动因素，运用CLUE一S模型，分别对其1 995和2000年的土地利用空间变化格局进行模拟，结果显示模拟比较成功，最后对其2020年的土地利用空间变化进行了模拟预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the expansive terrain, the regional differences of the natural resources gift and the social and economic development are remarkable in China. The mode of land use, the structure of regional land use and the extent of land use are very different in spatial distribution. A study selecting a small scale and typical region is an effective way to recognize and analyze thoroughly the law of the temporal and spatial change and the driving mechanism of land use. It makes that the researches of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) in China develop more deeply and widely. As an integrate grass-roots unit of the administration management system in China, county is the best administration level for the study of the management, planning and sustainable use of land resources. On this level, the relationship between the land use change and the human activities is relatively easy to analyze, moreover, the result of study is more useful in the process of local decision.In order to enrich the people’s understanding of the law of the land use change and provide the rationale and scientific basis, the dynamic mechanism of the occurring and development of the land use change must be illustrated and analyzed quantitatively. It is the premise of establishing the empirical model of regional LUCC and one of the directions deepening study of LUCC also. Multi-scale dynamic model based on integration and precise space orientation is a tool to analyze the cause and result of the land use change, and can partly reveal the complexity of the land use system, enhance the ability of explanation and prediction of the land use change, understand the function of the land use system better. It is also an important means to deepen understanding the complexity of LUCC. It is an important tool of understanding some key processes and quantitative study of regional LUCC, thus evaluating the future pattern and influence of the land use change, it also can provide support for working out land use plan and formulating land use policy.Based on the above analysis and understanding, taking Haiyan County in ZhejiangProvince as an example, this paper analyzes the driving mechanism of the land use change on county scale, and applies the CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to simulate and predict the spatial pattern change of land use in the future.The main contents and conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) Based on the expatiation on the definition of land use and land cover and their difference and the likely conditions of the occurring of land use change, the driving mechanism of land use change and then the relationship among the driving factors - the land use change ?land cover are analyzed.(2) The functions, objectives, structure and developing trends of the model of the land use change are analyzed and several important models of land use change are introduced, after that their main drawbacks are analyzed.(3) Based on the introduction of the main differences between CLUE-S and CLUE, the application of CLUE-S and its main flaws in the application are analyzed.(4) Taken Haiyan County in Zhjiang Province as an instance, the extent and rate of the land use change and conversion of the main land use change types in the research region are analyzed with utilizing the decoded data from the RS(Remote Sensing) images in 1986,1995 and 2000.Then based on expounding the selecting principles and classification of land use change in the research region, the mechanism of the driving factors both internal and external affecting the land use change is quantitatively analyzed.(5) Under the condition of understanding enough the natural environment conditions and the situation of social economy development in the studying region, based on the spatial data of land use in 1996, integrated the driving factors such as roads, rivers, ports, residential areas, altitude and the density of population, urbanization level, gross agricultural output per unit area, gross industrial output per更多还原