【作者】 曲永岗；

【导师】 严以新； 许长新；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 目前，国际现代港口发展出现了建设深水化、布局网络化、业务物流化、格局港城一体化、管理信息化、经营民营化等趋势。新中国成立50多年来，我国港口取得了很大发展，港口的功能由最初的地域性贸易港发展到多港合作的港口群，同时也存在规划战略高度不够、大型集装箱深水码头不足、港口布局尚未形成网络化、相关部门物流不顺畅、尚未完全实现港城一体化、管理信息化程度不高、民营化程度不够等缺陷。论文从战略管理、可持续发展理论和港口发展战略研究等方面进行文献综述，对目前港口发展中存在的问题进行分析，认为最关键、最核心的问题在于港口缺乏战略管理，使得港口不能从战略的高度、长远的角度推动适合我国港口发展的经营体制的尽快实现，阻碍了港口的基础设施建设和运营管理的信息化进程，同时也会影响港口发展模式的选择。同时对现有港口发展战略研究进行分析，认为现有研究未能将相关学科进行有效的结合、缺乏系统的数理方法等不足，因此，迫切需要进行港口发展战略研究。论文对发展战略研究的一般程序进行系统梳理，同时对常规的发展战略研究程序进行了改进，针对港口的特殊性，用港口吞吐量预测弥补了常规战略分析的不足，对未来港口货源及吞吐量进行详细的分析，有助于为港口发展战略选择提供充足的依据。对连云港港口发展的外部环境和内部条件进行了分析，将SWOT分析方法应用于连云港港口内外部环境分析，通过构造内外部因素评价矩阵，将连云港港务局的优势与劣势、面临的机会与威胁予以定量化，从而得出连云港港务局应该采取增长型发展战略的结论。探讨了港口发展战略研究相关指标设计，对计量经济模型的建立、数理处理、参数估计、模型检验等进行了方法论探讨，探索了灰色系统模型在港口吞吐量及集装箱预测中的可行性，明确提出该模型可用于港口吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量预测分析。论文将构建的港口发展战略研究的理论构架具体应用于连云港港口发展战略研究之中，提出了连云港港口发展战略目标。从组织战略、人才开发战略、投资理财战略、形象塑造战略四个方面提出了连云港港口发展的具体职能战略。对连云港港口发展阶段进行了划分，并选择管理创新战略、港城互动战略、市场拓展战略、产业优化战略、结构调整战略五个方面作为战略实施重点。并在此基础上提出了保障职能战略和战略重点顺利实施的战略措施和战略保障体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of international modern harbor is taking new trends of deep construction, networked distribution, logistic flow business, harbor-city integrated pattern, informationalized management, nongovernmental operation, etc. Harbor development of China has witnessed great progress since the establishment of PRC, and the functions of harbor have extended from the initial regional business to a group of cooperated harbors. There, however, exist some unfavorable aspects, such as the narrow-sighted strategic planning, insufficiency of deep harbors for the large-sized container, incompletion of networked harbor distribution, logistic obstruction among relative departments, incompletion of harbor-city integration, low degree of managerial informalization and nongovernmental operation.This dissertation presents a document survey on the strategic management, the sustainable development theory, and strategic research on harbor development. Analyses of the problems in current harbor development shows the critical one is that strategic management has not been adopted, which prevents harbors from accelerating the operational system of harbor development adequate to China’s long-term harbor development and also obstructs fundamental facilities building and the informationalization process of the operational management, and may affect the selection of the harbor development models. Meanwhile, some former strategic research on harbor development is also analyzed and it concludes that present research has not made good use of other relative subjects and is lack of systematic mathematical approaches, so it is urgent to do research on the harbor development.This dissertation provides the systematic arrangement and improvement of general procedures of development strategic research. In the view of the special features of harbor, harbor throughout forecast is used as a compensation for the general analysis. Detailed analyses of supply of goods and throughout in the future may develop clues for selecting harbor development strategies. It uses SWOT to examine the outer and inner environments of Lian Yun Gang harbor development and develops an evaluation matrix of inner and outer factors to measure the strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat of Lian Yun Gang harbor authority. It concludes that Lian Yun Gang harbor authority should adopt the growing developmental strategy. It presents relative indices designing of harbor development strategy, econometric models, data process, parameter estimate and model testing. It proves the Grey System Model adequate to harbor throughout and container forecastThe framework is adopted to the research on Lian Yun Gang harbor developmental strategy. This dissertation presents specific functional strategies for Lian Yun Gang harbor development in 4 aspects: the organization strategy, the human resource developmental strategy, the investing and financing strategy, and the image molding strategy. Moreover, Lian Yun Gang harbor development is divided into several stages and the key strategic implementation points are the managerial innovation strategy, the interactive harbor-city strategy, the market open-up strategy, the industry optimization strategy, and the structure regulation strategy. Then it concludes with some strategic measures and the strategy guarantee system that contribute to carrying out functional strategies and those key strategic points.更多还原