出口贸易促进经济增长的理论、模型及实证研究

【作者】 许和连；

【导师】 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 在中国对外贸易和经济增长经历了20多年的持续高速增长之后，尤其是在中国加入WTO的新形势下，对外贸易在我国经济增长中的作用研究已成为经济学界的一个重要课题，特别是出口贸易对中国经济增长作用的相关问题更是成为学术研究的热点。本文正是基于此，从理论、模型及实证多角度，运用增长理论和贸易理论研究出口贸易对我国经济增长的促进作用。首先，对国内外经济增长影响因素的已有研究进行整合，从系统的角度，结合中国实际，首次把计量学中的偏最小二乘法(PLS)及改进的岭-偏最小二乘法(RPLS)应用到中国经济增长影响因素的研究当中，研究得出在所选取的12各变量指标中，出口贸易在其中扮演了重要的角色；第二，在前一部分分析的基础之上，进一步分析出口贸易在我国经济增长中的重要作用，在对此领域已有的研究成果进行整合的基础上，运用前沿的计量经济分析方法(协整分析、Granger因果关系检验及误差修正模型等方法)分析了出口贸易在我国经济增长中的作用，并就湖南省的数据进行了区域分析；第三，在此基础上进一步考察出口贸易是通过怎样的渠道推动了中国的经济增长。与传统理论不同，新增长理论和新贸易理论都强调技术进步的作用，因此本文构建了一个三部门的技术外溢效应模型(国内部门、工业制成品出口部门以及初级产品出口部门)，考察了工业制成品出口和初级产品出口对国内非出口部门不同的技术外溢效应；第四，从更加广阔的视野就贸易开放度与中国经济增长问题进行研究，有关贸易开放度如何度量一直是存在较大争议的问题，本文首先对该类研究文献进行了较为详尽的述评，然后运用生产函数方法对所选取的5个贸易开放度度量指标进行了检验，结果发现尽管一些已有研究认为外贸依存度无法真实度量一国经济开放水平，但是本文研究结果表明外贸依存度仍是度量我国贸易开放度的较好指标，进一步采用基于VAR系统的脉冲响应函数法以及预测误差方法分解法对贸易开放促进经济增长的作用进行了动态刻画。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the past two decades have witnessed the significant performance of both China’s economic growth and its foreign trade, especially China’s entry into WTO, the impact of foreign trade on China’s economic growth has come into an important issue for the academic research, especially the influence of export on China’s economic growth. Based on this situation, this dissertation attempts to utilize the growth theory and trade theory to explore how export promotes Chinas’ economic growth.First of all, the author made a synthesis of those research outcomes about the driving forces of economic growth, and based on China’s current condition, first applied the method of partial least squares (PLS) and the improved RPLS to the analysis of China’s case. It has demonstrated that among the twelve variables that may affect China’s economic growth, export plays a key role. Secondly, based on the analytical results of the first part, the author furthers to investigate the impact of export on China’s economic growth. Advanced econometric methods of time series analysis, such as co-integration test, Granger causality test and error correction model, have been adopted to testify the impact of export on China’s economic growth, while a case study of Hunan province has also been carried out. Thirdly, this dissertation has made a deeper investigation on how export promotes China’s economic growth. Apart from the traditional theories, both new growth theory and new trade theory emphasize the great role of technological advances in economic growth. Therefore, a model of three sectors, respectively referring to domestic sector, manufacturing export sector and primary product export sector, has been established here to measure the technology spillover effects of export on domestic sector. Finally, based on a broader framework, this dissertation went on to investigate the relationship between openness and China’s economic growth, while the result shows that though there exists a notable dispute about how to measure the degree of China’s openness, the index of trade dependence still maintains the better one to reflect China’s economic openness. In the meanwhile, Impulse Response Function (IRF) method and Forecasting Errors Variance Decomposition (FEVD) method, both of which are based on the vector auto-regression (VAR) system, are used here to investigate the dynamic relationshipbetween openness and China’s economic growth.更多还原