公路交通可持续发展系统分析与评价

【作者】 张生瑞；

【导师】 严宝杰；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 本文应用定性和定量相结合的方法，针对公路交通系统可持续发展分析与评价问题进行了深入研究，内容包括：公路交通可持续发展系统(公平性、持续性、协调性)分析、公路交通可持续发展评价理论与方法、实现公路交通可持续发展战略措施等。 通过对公路交通可持续发展概念、内涵及特征分析，提出了公路交通可持续发展的概念模型和目标函数；对公路交通可持续发展系统的公平性内涵进行了分析，重点研究了公路交通资产的代际公平性以及交通资源分配和公路交通发展效益享受的代内公平问题，提出了公路交通资产代际转移模型及公路交通资源代内分配的公平性模型；基于发展系统的增长曲线分析了公路交通系统的持续性发展模式，提出了通过对公路交通系统内部相互作用的协调和系统外部调控的公路交通系统持续性的实现途径；讨论了交通运输系统的协调性问题，提出了系统协调发展模型，对交通运输系统的协调性问题进行了探讨，给出了评价交通运输系统协调度的理论计算方法。 根据公路交通可持续发展评价的内容、目的和特点，建立了公路交通可持续发展评价的指标体系；对评价指标属性值的计算及无量纲化问题进行了研究，并对评价指标权重的确定、评价方法进行了探讨；应用模糊识别原理，结合AHP权重确定方法，根据公路交通可持续发展目标(级别划分)的实现程度，提出了公路交通可持续发展的多层次模糊识别综合评价模型。 根据我国公路交通发展现状，提出我国公路交通可持续发展面临的主要问题；依据公路交通系统可持续发展影响因子辨识，按照影响的时间持续性，将其分为长时段影响因子、中时段影响因子和短时段影响因子，并进行了分析；提出了实现公路交通可持续发展战略对策建议。 根据天津市公路交通发展的实际状况，对部分综合性评价指标建立了计算模型，给出了计算方法；提出了公路交通系统与社会经济、资源环境之间协调度的计算方法，并进行了天津市公路交通可持续发展评价与分析实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Applying both qualitative and quantitative analysis method, in this paper, the author conducts in-depth research for the analysis and evaluation of the Sustainable Development System of Highway Transportation (SDSHT). The content of the paper contain: systematic analysis (analysis to fairness, sustainness and coordination) of the SDSHT, theory and method of evaluating of the SDSHT, and strategic solution to realize SDSHT.Through analysis to the conception, connotations and characters of SDSHT, the paper has put forward the conception model and object function; It has analyzed the fairness connotations of SDSHT, has emphatically studied the inter-generational fairness of the highway transportation property and the intra-generational fairness of the distribution of transportation resources as well as the enjoyment of highway developing profit, and has put forward the model of converting highway transportation property intra-generational and the model of distributing the highway transportation resources fairly intra-generational; Based on the the growth curve of the development system, the paper has analyzed the sustainable development pattern of highway transportation system, and has put forward the method to realize the sustainableness of highway transportation system by means of coordinating interactions within the system and mediating and controlling out of the system. The paper has discussed the coordination problem of transportation system and put forward the theory to calculate the coordination degree for evaluating the transportation system.According to the content, object and character of evaluating SDSHT, the paper has set up an index system to evaluate the SDSHT; It has studied the normalization methods of attribute value of the evaluation indexes, It has probed into the establishment and evaluation method of the weight of evaluation indexes; Applying with Fuzzy identifying principle and adopting AHP (the method of defining weight), the paper has put forward a multi-level comprehensive evaluation model of SDSHT according to the realization degree of SDSHT.According to the current situation of our country’s highway transportation development, this paper has put forward the main problems of sustainable development of highway transportation confronts us; Through the identifying of the affecting factors in SDSHT and based on time durability, the paper has classified the factors into long-period, middle-period and short-period factors, as well as strategy and suggestions to realize SDSHT.Base on the practical situation of the highway transportation development in TianJing, this paper has set up calculating models of partial comprehensive evaluatingindexes and provided the calculating method, It has put forward the computing method of the coordination degree among highway transportation system, social economy and resource, environment, and carried out the evaluation and research with analysis and practical demonstration of SDSHT in Tianjing.更多还原