城市机动车保有量与环境交通容量计算模式和因子的研究

【作者】 程继夏；

【导师】 边耀璋；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 城市化进程的加快，使得城市管理机构在制定城市发展规划的过程中，如何来考虑城市的需要的交通工具的与交通数量及相关因素；如何在保证城市在高质量生存环境的条件下，控制机动车对环境的污染问题成了人们关注的焦点。随着城市机动车拥有量的增加，机动车排放的尾气对环境的污染越来越引起人们的重视，欧美等发达国家均采取了强制的治理措施，中国也自1991年以来，对机动车实行了强制性的法规与措施。对城市机动车污染均采用被动的三元催化设备，三元催化剂对环境将可能产生更为严重的重金属二次污染问题，而没有考虑从环境容量与机动车数量关系角度去控制产生污染的机动车数量。本研究就此讨论分析了环境污染中与机动车有关的各污染因子及其与机动车数量的关系，提出了环境交通容量和交通环境容量的概念及与交通容量的区别和关系，并通过结合现有的研究成果建立了环境交通容量的计算模型，并确定了与交通环境容量的逻辑关系。分析了西安市的环境污染因子与城市机动车拥有量的关系，通过回归分析的方法确定了其相关性显著的相关因子NO_X，验证了理论分析的正确性。定量分析了西安市环境状况和机动车对环境的影响状况和发展潜力，确定了西安机动车的最大交通环境保有量，并预测了西安市2005、2010年的交通容量、环境交通容量。更多还原

【Abstract】 With more and more rapid urbanization, how to establish the relation between amount of vehicle needed and traffic volume as well as other relative factors and how to control pollution of automobiles without influence on high living standard have become focuses for administrations in the process of making city plan. With the increasing of automobiles in urban areas, people have put more and more attention on pollution of automobile tail gas. The developed countries such as Europe and America have applied obligatory means to prevent pollution, and China have put into effect obligatory law and regulations since 1991. People have to fix tri-catalytic equipment on urban automobiles against pollution of them, but tri-catalytic can lead to more serious heavy metal pollution, whereas people have not thought to control the amount of automobiles in aspect of relation between environmental capacity and the amount of automobiles. Then the research discusses and analyzes each environmental factor of environmental pollution and the relation between them and the amount of automobiles; refers the concepts of environmental traffic capacity and traffic environmental capacity and finds the relation and difference between each factor and traffic capacity; establishes compute model for environmental traffic capacity and logical relation between it and traffic environmental capacity. In addition the research analyzes the relation between environmental factors and the amount of urban automobiles in Xi’an; finds the prominently relative factor-NOx, by regression analysis; proves the theoretical analyses. Finally, the research finds the largest amount of automobiles permitted by environment through analyzing situation of environment, influence of automobiles on environment and potentiality of development of automobiles in quantity , have calculated traffic capacity and traffic environmental capacity for Xi’an in 2005,2010 year更多还原