群体态度构成与演化的非线性动力学模型及其应用研究

【作者】 李小平；

【导师】 余嘉元；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 基础心理学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 非线性动力学是一门旨在探索复杂性的科学，它提供了一套崭新的理解真实、复杂系统的概念和方法。在80年代，协同学的创始人H.哈肯首先将非线性动力学运用于群体心理的研究，提出了群体态度构成与演化的非线性动力学模型。哈肯等人的工作使我们用非线性方法定量化探讨群体心理成为可能。然而作为来自理论自然科学的模型与实际的心理学的应用无论在概念上还是在方法上都还有一定的距离。本研究就是以哈肯等人的工作为基础，对群体态度的非线性动力学模型及相关参数的心理学意义进行分析，并解决了模型中转移概率和参数的取值问题。在此基础上尝试将非线性动力学关于群体态度构成与演化的理论模型应用于群体心理的研究。应用研究之一是家用轿车的消费趋势，根据研究的结果，发现当前群体中已经形成了一种倾向于购车的舆论压力和对汽车消费的倾向性偏好。应用研究之二是关于社会稳定性的分析，通过将多维度态度空间与对社会满意度关系的分析，获得了动态把握群体心理演化趋势并可以预测群体心理发生突变的途径和方法，所得的结果也基本符合当前社会的实际情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 The nonlinear dynamics as a science aims at exploring complexity and which provides an innovative way of understanding the real, complicated systems. In the 1980s, H. Haken, the originator of Synergetics, is an initial scientist who used the concepts and methods of nonlinear dynamics to research mass mind and built up a dynamical model for mass attitudes’ composition and changing. Haken and the other scientists’ work made it possible to use nonlinear methods to quantitatively explore mass mind. But there is considerable distance between the model that is from theoretical natural sciences and the application in the fields of psychology. Based on Haken’s work, this paper discusses the psychological meaning of the model and parameters, and finds a way to obtain the transfer-probability and the parameters in this model, and furthermore, attempts to use this model in the researches of real mass mind. One of the cases is the consumer tendency for motor cars. The finding shows that there has been formed lopsided opinion and preference for cars consume in current mass. The second case is about social stability research. By way of analyzing the relationship of multidimensional attitude space with the degrees of satisfaction for society, the approaches that can dynamically predominate the trends of becoming and forecast emergence for crowd behaviors are obtained. The findings basically accord with current actual social situation.更多还原