【作者】 顾晓辉；

【导师】 赵有守；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 火炮、自动武器与弹药工程， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 本文进行了反直升机智能雷系统分析的研究。给出了反直升机智能雷战斗部总体效能的评价体系，对各种评价方法进行了分析，在TOPSIS方法中引入层次结构的概念，提出了适用于智能雷战斗部总体效能评价的层次TOPSIS评价方法，采用效用函数法进行指标值的统一量化，并给出了权向量的计算方法；引入了灰色层次评估法对反直升机智能雷战斗部总体效能进行评估，在确定样本矩阵方面，本文提出了用性能指标的效用函数值取代由评估者评分的方法，使得样本矩阵更具有可靠性和科学性；应用人工神经网络技术解决反直升机智能雷战斗部系统总体效能评价问题进行了探讨，给出了神经网络评价模型和算法，对层次TOPSIS法评价结果与神经网络评价结果进行比较，结果表明神经网络的评价结果受决策者的主观性影响较小。本文应用灰色系统预测理论解决弹箭系统研制费用估计问题，建立了灰色系统GM费用模型和n次累加残差模型并对GM费用预测模型进行修正，提出了用灰色系统理论中的关联度分析技术，来确定费用模型中的特征参量，建立了弹箭系统神经网络研制费用估算模型和算法，采用费效比值准则能较好地反映智能雷战斗部综合能力。本文提出了风险分析在弹药系统研制中的重要性，分析了各种风险分析与估计方法，给出了风险的基本概念，特有属性和定义，结合弹药系统的特点，给出了风险的数学表述方法和风险分布的概率估计；提出了使用VAR(风险价值)方法分析弹药系统由于不确定因素引起的研制风险；结合武器系统研制的实际情况，假定行为人风险偏好特性为定常风险中立，给出了在该风险偏好特性下的险度函数，通过险度函数的研制风险分析为风险决策提供了量化的决策依据，以反直升机智能雷战斗部为例。验证了该方法的有效性，并且具有科学和实用价值。 本文进行了反直升机智能雷火力控制系统的研究。提出了智能雷火力控制系统概念，并详细介绍了智能雷火力控制功能。结合武装直升机在巡航或搜索地面目标的特点，给出直升机航迹模型为协方差平稳随机模型，在线估计有色噪声参数，对测量噪声去相关，对直升机航迹进行卡尔曼滤波与预估，最后对有色噪声条件下的航迹进行了仿真研究；在数据非常有限的情况下， －11－反直升机智能雷有关总体的理论研究准确地预测又很困难，本文提出了用灰色系统理论解决直升机航迹预测问题，建立了灰色系统GM预测模型和n次累加残差模型并对GM预测模型进行修正，在每个采样期间内，实时在线建立GM预测模型和残差模型以提高预测精度。提出了用双直角三角形阵对声目标进行定位，该方法采用虚拟传声器技术，用较少的传声器能达到主一从式正四方形阵的定位效果，从而解决了单四方形阵不能远距离定位的问题。介绍了声目标的各种识别方法，将De ppste一跄afer证据推理的基本理论应用到声目标的识别中，用质量函数构造基本概率赋值函数，给出了在n次扫描情况下，累积质量函数的融合公式；用BP神经网络构造基本概率赋值函数，从而避开了建立质量函数的麻烦，大大拓宽了这种方法的应用范围，给出了改进后的BP神经网络算法并给出了识别目标的决策方法。从现代火控理论出发，分析了反直升机智能雷武器系统射击诸元的计算方法，建立了适合反直升机智能雷的命中方程并用收敛快、精度高的改进牛顿搜索祛求解命中方程，计算出智能雷的射击诸元，同时给出了移动角速率计算方法，近似求解射击诸元。更多还原

【Abstract】 The systems analysis in anti-helicopter intelligent mine is studied. The evaluation system on anti-helicopter smart mine warhead’ s overall efficiency is presented in the dissertation. All kinds of evaluation methods have been analyzed. By drawing the concept of hierarchical structure into the method of TOPSIS an evaluation method, known as hierarchical TOPSIS, has been put forward which is suitable for the overall efficiency evaluation of smart mine warheads. By use of the method of effect function, all the index values have been quantitized uniformly, and the computational method on the weight vectors has also been given out. It draws grey hierarchical evaluation method into anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead’s overall efficiency. In fixing sample matrix, it presents the method which effect function value of all the performance index take the place of decision-maker’s mark and takes sample matrix to have reliability and science. Problems of overall efficiency evaluation of anti-helicopter smart mine Warheads are discussed , where techniques on artificial neural networks are used. The evaluation model and algorithm of neural network have keen given out. By comparing the evaluation result on method of hierarchical TOPSIS with the evaluation result on method of neural network, the evaluation results show the evaluation result based on neural network has less dependence on the subjectivity of decision^maker. The paper makes use of the theory of Grey system forecast to resolve the problem of ammunition and rocket system development cost evaluation, establishing the GM model of Grey systems and cumulative residual error model, then correcting the GM forecast model. This paper suggests that the characteristic parameters in the cost model should be determined by the correlation analytic technique of the Grey system theory. Consequently the development cost evaluation model and algorithm of ammunition-rocket systems have been established by neural network method. The rule of cost-efficiency rate can reflectsynthetic capacity of intelligent mine warheads fairly good . The paper elaborates the importance of risk analysis approach to ammunition system development and analyses various methods of risk analysis and estimation. It gives out the basic concept and characteristic properties and definition of risk and gives out the method of mathematical expression of risk and probability estimation of risk distribution. It puts forward the method of using VAR (Value At Risk) to analyze development risk of ammunition system. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, if risk preference characteristics of behavior person is risk independence of fixed constant, it gives out risk measurement function under the characteristics of risk preference. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk. Take anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example ,the paper has verified the efficiency of the method and shows that it has scientific and practical value.The fire control system on anti-helicopter intelligent mine is studied in the dissertation .The concept of the fire control system of smart mine has been put forward in the article. In the meantime, the fire control functions of smart mine have been introduced in detail. According to the characteristics presented by armed helicopters during cruising or searching for ground targets, this paper has established the mean-square deviation stationary random model of helicopter tracks. It is an important method to decorrelate the measure noise by estimating the parameters of the color noise online. Kalman filtering and forecasting have been made with helicopter tracks . The simulated study has been carried out on helicopter tracks under the condition of color noise. It is very difficult to get an accurate and reliable prediction when the data is very limited. The paper make use of the theory of grey system to resolve the problem of prediction of helicopter tracks,更多还原