货币一体化理论及对东亚货币一体化的理论探讨

【作者】 张斌；

【导师】 张蕴岭；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 世界经济， 2001， 博士

【摘要】 本文比较全面评介了最优货币区理论的发展、影响及主要内容；回顾了欧洲货币一体化进程并指出了其影响和主要经验；探讨了东亚货币一体化的必要性、收益和成本、可能形式、进程以及中国的对策。 第一章较为全面地评述了最优货币区理论的发展及其影响。先对货币一体化概念作了定义，指出其内涵和外延，并阐述了货币一体化与经济合作、金融合作、货币合作、经济一体化、金融一体化、经济同盟、货币同盟、最优货币区等概念的区别。最优货币区理论的发展有三个阶段：①早期的最优货币区理论，②80年代中期至90年代初最优货币区理论的复兴，③最优货币区理论的最新发展。最后，论述了最优货币区理论的意义，包括最优货币区理论对经济学理论的贡献及对世界各地货币一体化实践的影响。 第二章着重阐述共同货币的成本与收益。货币一体化实践的理论基础是最优货币区理论，最优货币区理论已经演变为着重于对共同货币的成本与收益的分析。这种分析同样适用于对货币一体化进程和各种形式的货币同盟（如共同钉住、货币局、美元化、共同货币及有关经济与货币政策的协调）的分析。共同货币或货币同盟有一些重要的收益，例如，降低或取消了与各国货币兑换有关的交易成本和远期抛补的成本，消除了未来汇率不确定的风险，在一定程度上促进各国经济增长，推进地区经济一体化的进程，以及节约外汇储备。货币同盟的成本主要是货币政策自主权不同程度的丧失和汇率工具的丧失。 第三章通过回顾欧洲货币一体化的历史，总结了欧洲货币一体化经验教训，并指出了欧洲货币一体化影响。欧洲货币一体化的成功经验对于世界各地的货币一体化，特别是东亚货币一体化具有很好的借鉴作用。欧洲货币一体化的成功经验主要有：货币一体化的成功取决于经济因素，更取决于政治因素；渐进主义和趋同；成熟的合作机构；主权国家与货币同盟可以并存。 第四章论述了东亚货币一体化的必要性、探讨了东亚货币一体化的收益与成本分析，对东亚货币一体化进程和前景作了预测，并探讨了中国在东亚货币一体化中的对策和作用。 东亚各国已经认识到加强地区货币合作、推动地区货币一体化对于防范和克服货币危机或金融危机、节约外汇储备、促进地区经济一体化和保持东亚持续稳定的经济增长都是极为重要的。然而，由于东亚各经济体经济发展水平相差很大，各国政策协调水平仍然很低，再加上二战遗留下来的一些政治因素，东亚目前还不具各实行完全货币同盟的条件，完全的货币同盟只能是一个长期目标。但是，东亚目前可以实行某种不完全的货币同盟，如共同钉住体制。随着东亚经济合作和经济一体化的加深，东亚有可能实现某种较高级形式的货币同盟。东亚货币同盟在开始将是实行共同单一钉住，逐步过渡到共同篮子钉住，最终实现共同货币。东亚共同货币有可能先在一些次区域实现，然后逐步扩大，最终包括整个东亚。东亚货币同盟的实现取决于经济因素，更取决于政治因素。在克服了政治障碍之后，东亚实行某种形式的货币同盟不是不可能的。 东亚地区的经济繁荣和货币稳定是中国经济持续高速增长的一个重要外部条件，对中国在21纪中叶实现第三步战略目标至关重要。根据邓小平理论的“三个有利于方针”（有利于社会主义生产力的发展、有利于综合国力的提高、有利于人民生活水平的提高），东亚的经济繁荣和货币稳定是符合中国的长期国策和外交政策。中国应当重视和积极参与东亚货币合作，对推进东亚货币一体化和建立某种形式的东亚货币同盟持积极的态度。 本文附录借用了美国学者艾臣格林和巴尤米的最优货币区模型，收集了东亚九个经济体的有关宏观经济数据，用TSP软件计算出方程的系数估算值。计算结果与定性基本相符，即目前整个东亚不是一个最优货币区，东盟五个核心国家非常符合最优货币区的条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dissertation makes a full review of the development, main arguments and influences of the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA theory), discusses the process of European monetary integration and points out its influences and experiences, explore the necessity, costs and benefits, possible forms and process of East Asian monetary integration and makes some suggestions about China’s relevant strategies and policies.Chapter One makes a full review of the development, main arguments and influences of the theory of optimum currency areas. The dissertation first tries to give an exact definition of monetary integration, points out its differences with other related concepts, such as economic cooperation, financial cooperation, monetary cooperation, economic integration, financial integration, economic union, monetary union and optimum currency areas. There are three main phases in the development of the theory of optimum currency areas. (1) early (conventional) theories of optimum currency areas; (2) revival of theory of optimum currency areas in the mid-80s and early 90s; (3) recent development of theory of optimum currency areas. In the end of chapter one, we discuss the implications of OCA theory, including its influences on economic theories and practices of monetary integration in various parts of the world.Chapter two focuses on discussing the costs and benefits of a common currency. The theoretical foundation of monetary integration is the OCA theories. The OCA theories have evolved to focus on evaluating the costs and benefits of adopting a common currency. This analysis can be applied to all processes of monetary integration and all forms of monetary unions, such as common pegs, currency board, dollarization, common currency and related coordination of economic and monetary policies. Common currency or monetary union has some important benefits, such as reduction or elimination of transaction costs and forward covering costs related to the exchange of national monies, promotion of economic integration and economic growth, and saving of foreign reserves. The main costs are the loss of monetary policy independency and the loss of exchange rate instrument.Chapter Three makes a review of the process of the European monetary integration, summarizes European experiences and lessons, and points out its influences. The successful experiences of the European monetary integration can be a good example for the practices of monetary integration in various parts of the world, particularly in East Asia. The successful experiences of the European monetary integration are mainly as follows. The success of monetary integration depends on economic factors, but more on political factors. The process is one of gradualism and convergence. Mature institutions for cooperation must be established. Sovereign nations can co-exist with a monetary union.Chapter Four explores and discusses the necessity, costs and benefits, possible forms and process of East Asian monetary integration, makes some suggestions about China’s relevant roles and policies.Now it is generally realized in East Asia that strengthening and promoting regional monetary cooperation and integration are vital for preventing and overcoming monetary or financial crisis, saving foreign exchange reserves, promoting regional economic integration, and maintaining sustained and stable economic growth in East Asia.However, due to the enormous disparities in levels of economic development, low level ofpolicy coordination in East Asian economies, and the political factors inherited from the Second World War, East Asia as a whole currently does not satisfy the preconditions of a complete monetary union. A complete monetary union can only be a long-term goal for East Asia. However, East Asia can now adopt some incomplete forms of monetary union, such as common peg system. As economic cooperation and integration in East Asia increases, the region can adopt some higher forms of monetary union.In the beginning, an East Asian monetary union will be a common s更多还原